A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
